Browse the Radio 4 episodes
Series 1 Episode 1 (13/11/2001) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/1654125.stm *Location of audio file on BBC website unknown (if anyone can find it, please update this). Episode 2 (20/11/2001) *Location of audio file on BBC website unknown (if anyone can find it, please update this). Episode 3 (27/11/2001) *Location of audio file on BBC website unknown (if anyone can find it, please update this). Episode 4 (04/12/2001) *Location of audio file on BBC website unknown (if anyone can find it, please update this). Episode 5 (11/12/2001) *Location of audio file on BBC website unknown (if anyone can find it, please update this). Episode 6 (18/12/2001) *Location of audio file on BBC website unknown (if anyone can find it, please update this). Series 2 Episode 1 (12/11/2002) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/2411647.stm *Oral learning of mathematics: Learning mathematics by oral learning as opposed to traditional formal methods can be advantageous. Examples of this are discussed including street children who can do mathematics when selling goods but cannot do it in schools. Episode 2 (19/11/2002) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/2474983.stm *Mathematics of skimming stones: The mathematics behind skimming stones across water is discussed. *Risk of getting breast cancer for women who drink: A study reported that women who drank alcohol had an increased risk of breast cancer. The level of this increased risk is discussed including absolute and relative risks. Episode 3 (26/11/2002) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/2503929.stm Episode 4 (03/12/2002) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/2524909.stm Episode 5 (10/12/2002) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/2546353.stm Episode 6 (17/12/2002) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/2569485.stm *Bell-ringing and permutations: The mathematics behind peals of bells is discussed including permutations. *School league tables: Discussion of the history of school league tables and attempts to include a value-added element. See also 19/01/2006, 11/12/2006, http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/factual/learningcurve_20080616.shtml . Series 3 Episode 1 (18/02/2003) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/2754827.stm *Observing and recording animal and human behaviour: The ways in which animal and human behaviour can be observed and recorded is discussed. Episode 2 (25/02/2003) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/2788355.stm *Media reporting of risk: How the media report the risk of transportation and other issues is discussed, looking at the balance between their need for a good story and responsible reporting of the actual risks. Episode 3 (04/03/2003) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/2807335.stm *Claims of undercounting in the 2001 census: The results from the 2001 census showed large changes in population for some cities. It is suggested that this may be a result of undercounting, but it may also be the result of past overestimates. Episode 4 (11/03/2003) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/2825791.stm Episode 5 (18/03/2003) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/2847443.stm Episode 6 (25/03/2003) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/2867745.stm *Number magic and coincidences: How numbers can sometimes appear to do magic things and how coincidences can just be mathematically bound to happen. Series 4 Episode 1 (12/06/2003) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/2960160.stm *Location of audio file on BBC website unknown (if anyone can find it, please update this). Episode 2 (19/06/2003) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/2987566.stm *Estimating fish stocks: Scientists and fishermen often disagree about the size of fish stocks. The sampling techniques of the scientists are criticised by fishermen who misunderstand the distinction between sampling and carrying out a census. The modelling of fish stocks is also discussed. *Press releases, absolute, relative risk, reporting results: Press releases about the results of cancer studies are condemned for stating only relative risk when absolute risk is vital to a proper understanding of the issues involved. A detailed explanation of absolute and relative risk is given. The broadcast goes on to consider publications that result from the work and how they are often worded to make the work sound more important and attract further funding. Episode 3 (26/06/2003) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/3013080.stm *Location of audio file on BBC website unknown (if anyone can find it, please update this). Episode 4 (03/07/2003) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/3026120.stm Episode 5 (10/07/2003) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/3044354.stm *GM crop trials, hypotheses and power: The nature of appropriate null hypotheses for trials of GM crops are discussed. The power of statistical tests is also discussed. Episode 6 (17/07/2003) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/3065959.stm Series 5 Episode 1 (08/01/2004) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/3381919.stm *Due dates for giving birth: Are doctors giving expectant mothers the correct due date for the birth of their baby? In France, they give longer than in the UK. A discussion of how the date is calculated is given including whether the mean length of gestation is a good measure or should the mode be used. Episode 2 (15/01/2004) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/3332015.stm Episode 3 (22/01/2004) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/3412909.stm Episode 4 (29/01/2004) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/3439027.stm *Speed cameras and regression to the mean: Effectiveness of speed cameras and regression to the mean A government report into the effectiveness of speed cameras is examined in relation to the issue of regression to the mean. See also 22/12/2005, 19/11/2007. Episode 5 (05/02/2004) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/3455985.stm Episode 6 (12/02/2004) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/3481431.stm Series 6 Episode 1 (17/06/2004) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/3811679.stm Episode 2 (24/06/2004) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/3833043.stm *Confusion over incidence and prevalence of cancer: A study was reported to be saying that many more people were going to get cancer in the future. What it actually said was that in the future there would be many more people alive who had had cancer. The former is the incidence and the latter is the prevalence. This distinction is discussed and also the implications of the increase in prevalence. Episode 3 (01/07/2004) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/3852909.stm Episode 4 (08/07/2004) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/3874809.stm *Measuring impartiality: How one might go about measuring impartiality of media reports. *Relationships and causation: Various examples of how finding a relationship does not mean that there is a causal relationship that exists. Episode 5 (15/07/2004) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/3895797.stm *Childcare and antisocial behaviour: A report suggested that there was an association between children exhibiting antisocial behaviour and them being in childcare for many hours a week when they were very young. The size of the effect, the relevant comparison population (all children or children who had little childcare) and other relevant factors are discussed. Episode 6 (22/07/2004) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/3914227.stm Episode 7 (29/07/2004) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/3933513.stm *Location of audio file on BBC website unknown (if anyone can find it, please update this). Series 7 Episode 1 (13/01/2005) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4164055.stm *Risk of ear tumours from mobile phone use: A study suggested that the risk of getting an ear tumour was doubled for a certain category of mobile phone user. The usefulness of this relative risk without reference to the absolute risk is discussed. *When the median is more useful than the mean: Examples of when the mean is not a useful measure and it would be better to use the median. Episode 2 (20/01/2005) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4187395.stm *Life expectancy after surgery is right-skewed: After cancer surgery, the median life expectancy was not very high, but further investigation revealed a right-skewed distribution which gave the hope of many further years of life. Episode 3 (27/01/2005) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4205971.stm *International Passenger Survey: How the International Passenger Survey is carried out. This is a survey of travellers into and out of the U.K. and is used for various purposes including migration statistics and balance of payments. *Measuring youth crime and overstating the level: A survey of youth crime got big headlines in the media. However, closer investigation of the data collection methods suggests that the levels of crime are not as great as suggested. *Simpson's Paradox: An example of Simpson's Paradox where averaging averages is not the same as calculating an overall average. Episode 4 (03/02/2005) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4230221.stm *Benford's Law: Benford’s Law concerns the natural lack or randomness in apparently random data. An example given is that lengths of rivers, whatever measurement units you use, more often begin with the digit 1 than the digit 2. An example of how Benford’s Law is used to detect fraud is also discussed. See also Benford’s paper on the subject: Benford, F. (1938) “The law of anomalous numbers”, Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 78, 4, pp551-572. *Counting the number of Somalis in the UK: Knowing the number of Somalis in the UK is important because some grants are awarded to minority groups on the basis of how many people they are serving. However, there is a large disparity between the numbers claimed and those counted in the 2001 census. The reasons for this are discussed, as are the various ways of coming up with an estimate. Episode 5 (10/02/2005) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4249239.stm Episode 6 (17/02/2005) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4263679.stm *Publication bias and its consequences: A discussion of the phenomenon of publication bias and the implications it can have: e.g. using inappropriate drugs, implementing inappropriate policies. Election Special (26/04/2005) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4440979.stm Series 8 Episode 1 (23/06/2005) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4116908.stm *Animated graphics and conditions in the developing world: Various measureable items in the developing world have been changing over the years. This article describes how animated statistical graphics can be used to see how this is happening. Episode 2 (30/06/2005) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4635239.stm *Passive smoking risks, CIs and reporting risks: The statistics behind the risks of passive smoking, a good discussion about what confidence intervals are and what they mean, and a discussion about the reporting of increased risks. Episode 3 (07/07/2005) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4657179.stm Episode 4 (14/07/2005) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4679743.stm Episode 5 (21/07/2005) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4702683.stm *Taking into account more than just the average: Discusses the perils of just looking at the average when making decisions as the various possible outcomes may have an asymmetric distribution. With the use of examples, it is explained that the full range of outcomes need to be looked at. Series 9 Episode 1 (22/12/2005) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4541390.stm *Speed cameras and regression to the mean: Speed cameras and saving lives Do speed cameras really save lives? This is used as an example of the regression to the mean phenomenon. See also 29/11/2004, 19/11/2007. Episode 2 (29/12/2005) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4566512.stm *Choosing kidney transplant recipients: An explanation of how the decision is made concerning who should receive a kidney that is available for transplant, using various factors associated with th kidney available and those on the waiting list. Episode 3 (05/01/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4584962.stm *Data quality and related issues in the health services: Discussion of data quality in the health services and how it can be very poor and thus mean that only large differences between items of interest can be identified. Also mentioned are missing values and the cost of obtaining quality data. Episode 4 (12/01/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4604992.stm *Difficulties of constructing international league tables: The inherent difficulties of constructing league tables of nation states are discussed, including differences in measuring systems and differences in what is considered important to have measured. Episode 5 (19/01/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4627552.stm *Chances of having a boy or girl baby: Examines the probability of having a boy or a girl baby and whether having had several boys or several girls previously affects this. *Do left-handed people die younger: Examines the evidence surrounding the suggestion that left-handed people die younger, including analysis of data about sports people. *School league tables: Discusses Key Stage 3 to GCSE value-added tables. Because the top band at Key Stage 3 covered 20% of pupils, selective schools who take the top of this 20% seem to have better value-added that those schools left with the rest of this 20% because they are all put at the same starting point, when in fact the actual improvement for the top of the 20% might be less than the actual improvement for the rest. See also 17/12/2002, 11/12/2006, http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/factual/learningcurve_20080616.shtml . Episode 6 (26/01/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4646222.stm *Counting numbers of wild animals using roadkill and droppings: Talks to people who estimate the number of hedgehogs in the wild by counting the number of dead ones seen on roads and to people who count deer droppings to estimate the number of deer. Episode 7 (02/02/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/4672938.stm Series 10 Episode 1 (22/06/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/5075070.stm Episode 2 (29/06/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/5127920.stm Episode 3 (06/07/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/5153128.stm *First-borns and intelligence: Anecdotal evidence might suggest that first-born children end up more intelligent because of the extra time parents have to concentrate on them. A Dutch Army study backed this up but another study looking within families did not. See also Belmont. L. & Marolla, F.A. (1973) "Birth order, family size and intelligence", Science, 182, 4117, pp1096-1101 and Rodgers, J.L., Cleveland, H.H., van den Ord, E. & Rowe, D.C. (2000) "Resolving the debate over birth order, family size and intelligence", American Psychologist, 55, 6, pp599-612. Episode 4 (13/07/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/5175432.stm Episode 5 (20/07/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/5198274.stm Episode 6 (27/07/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/5215842.stm *Bad headline grabbing surveys: Examples and discussion of poor surveys that give headline grabbing conclusions. *Randomised control trials: What are randomised control trials and why are they so useful? Series 11 Episode 1 (23/10/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6076738.stm *Diet and behaviour in prisons: Details of a careful study linking diet and behaviour in prisons. Ethical considerations are discussed, how the study was conducted. Questions are raised about the lack of follow-up studies and how the Home Office undertakes studies in general. *Hawthorne effect: How collecting data from people can change their responses. Episode 2 (30/10/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6098740.stm *Average call time for call centre staff: Story of call centre staff who are judged on their average call duration. Some were reducing their average call duration by cutting people off after a couple of seconds. *Targets and payments in the NHS: Discusses gaming where the existence of targets and payments systems in the NHS may be affecting the recording of data and how hospitals carry out their activities. Episode 3 (06/11/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6120744.stm *Making performance measures fit a distribution: Managers had to rate the performance of their staff and were expected to have a range of good, average and poor staff. In order to achieve the required distribution of performances, managers were actively trying to get poor staff on their team to make the numbers work out. Episode 4 (13/11/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6142952.stm *The curse of Sports Illustrated: People appearing on the cover of Sports Illustrated appear to be prone to having a downturn in fortunes after being on the cover. This is an example of regression to the mean which is discussed. Episode 5 (20/11/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6165950.stm *Generating random numbers: Discussion of how random numbers are generated. Episode 6 (27/11/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6187896.stm *Average graduate salaries: A survey of graduates showed that geographers had the highest average wage. Further investigation showed the data included the basketball player Michael Jordan, showing the perils of looking just at the average. *Randomness of V1 bombings: In WW2, it was a subject for debate whether the V1 rockets dropped on London were targeting various places or were dropping at random. A statistical analysis was carried out and concluded they were random. Episode 7 (04/12/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6205730.stm Episode 8 (11/12/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6169603.stm *School league tables: Discussion of the history of school league tables and attempts to include a value-added element. See also 17/12/2002, 19/01/2006, http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/factual/learningcurve_20080616.shtml . Episode 9 (18/12/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6189369.stm *2011 census: Discussion of issues raised by the 2001 census and plans for the 2011 census. *Predicting hits in the music industry: Commercial software that analyses music and based on its characteristics, predicts whether or not it would a hit. It appears to use some sort of cluster analysis. Episode 10 (25/12/2006) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6197607.stm Series 12 Episode 1 (23/04/2007) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6575057.stm Episode 2 (30/04/2007) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6607733.stm Episode 3 (07/05/2007) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6626111.stm Episode 4 (14/05/2007) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6653057.stm Episode 5 (21/05/2007) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6675909.stm *High mortality rate is a statistical blip: A high mortality rate was observed for a Primary Care Trust. Why was this? Investigations revealed that it was most probably just a blip caused by a small sample size. *UNICEF survey of child welfare: Creating rankings from difference scores and conducting international surveys. Episode 6 (28/05/2007) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6692577.stm *Social class and life expectancy: The whole programme, devoted to the evidence of a link between soical class and life expectancy, and how that evidence is obtained. Episode 7 (04/06/2007) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6718007.stm *Crime statistics and public perception of levels of crime: Discussion of how official crime statistics show falling levels whilst the public perception is of increasing levels and how the presentation of the statistics is important in this context. Episode 8 (11/06/2007) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/6741547.stm *Decision making and software to aid decision making: Discussion of ideas behind the decision making process and of software that helps with decision making. Series 13 Episode 1 (29/10/2007) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7063633.stm Episode 2 (05/11/2007) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7078555.stm Episode 3 (12/11/2007) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7090524.stm *Happiness and causality: Can we disentangle the causes of happiness from other factors? Talks about the need for panel data. Episode 4 (19/11/2007) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7101633.stm *Counting and mapping birds: How the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO) count and map birds. *Measuring waiting times in the NHS: The different ways in which waiting times are measured in the NHS is discussed. *Speed cameras and regression to the mean: Speed cameras and reducing accidents The issue of whether speed cameras reduce accidents or not is revisited. It includes an explanation of regression to the mean. See also 29/01/2004, 22/12/2005. Episode 5 (26/11/2007) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7112919.stm Episode 6 (03/12/2007) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7124758.stm *Living on a dollar a day: The number of people living on less than a dollar a day is a well- known measure of poverty. This article discusses how a dollar a day is measured. *National positions in league tables: England and Scotland's positions in a league table of reading abilities are discussed with reference to the reliability of the information that goes into the table and the relevance of changes in positions over time when you have new countries taking part. See also 10/12/2007. *Reporting risks related to diet and cancer: Should we talk about absolute risks as well as relative risk and about predicted benefits (e.g. in terms of months/years extra life expectancy) of changing diet? Episode 7 (10/12/2007) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7136351.stm *National positions in league tables: National positions in a league table of mathematics abilities are given the same investigation as that of reading abilities. See also 03/12/2007. *Pregnancy-related deaths and weight: A report apparently linked the chances of dying due to pregnancy or childbirth and mother's weight. In fact it was poor reporting of the results that caused the headlines. *Survey of priorities for carers: A survey of pririties for carers reported that the main concern was for recognition from health-care workers rather than about money. An investigation showed that concern about money had been split between age-groups. When groups were combined, money was the main concern. Episode 8 (17/12/2007) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7148322.stm Series 14 Episode 1 (07/04/2008) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7324125.stm Episode 2 (14/04/2008) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7346500.stm Episode 3 (21/04/2008) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7358928.stm Episode 4 (28/04/2008) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7370557.stm *Food influences baby gender: Explanation of p-values and adjusting for multiple testing. Mathews, F., Johnson, P.J. & Neil, A. (2008) You are what your mother eats: evidence for maternal preconception diet influencing foetal sex in humans, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. *Has global warming peaked: How looking at graphs of data in different ways may lead to different conclusions. Episode 5 (05/05/2008) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7380853.stm *RICS survey of surveyors: The RICS Housing Market Survey of surveyors reports, for instance 78.5% more Chartered Surveyors reported a fall than a rise in house prices rather than tell us what percentage said a rise, what percentage said a fall and what percentage said no change. See also http://www.rics.org/Practiceareas/Property/Residential/Market/. *Whitehall II: Discusses a health study in the context of confounding. It also mentions factors that are predictive and then talks about them as if this means they are causal. See also 26/05/2008, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitehall_Study, http://www.ucl.ac.uk/whitehallII/. Episode 6 (12/05/2008) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7396017.stm *Telephone polls versus Internet polls: YouGov internet polls versus telephone polls - which method is better and how come YouGov got the London Mayor election correct? Episode 7 (19/05/2008) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7408337.stm Episode 8 (26/05/2008) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7417216.stm *Whitehall II: Follows on from discussion of Whitehall II study on 05/05/2008 and discusses causal narratives and that just because a statistical association between things has been found and that there is a plausible causal narrative, it still does not mean that a true association has necessarily been found. See also 05/05/2008, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitehall_Study, http://www.ucl.ac.uk/whitehallII/. Series 15 Episode 1 (05/12/2008) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7765581.stm *Halo effect: In surveys asking people's opinions of various aspects of some organisation or person (e.g. aspects of business for firms), there is a halo effect where firms that score well in one area also score well in other areas, not because they are genuinely good in these other areas but because the people doing the scoring are inclined to favour them because they know they are good. There is also the example of George Bush's approval ratings going up after the September 11th attacks not just for foreign policy but also for economic policy. See also http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7758713.stm. Episode 2 (12/12/2008) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7778304.stm *House numbers and the number 13: Some parts of the country do not use the number 13 when numbering houses in a street. This story talks about how the house numbering system came about and why some places use number 13 and some do not. *LIBOR: Looking at how the LIBOR is calculated and the possible effect that publicising the numbers that are used to calculate it could have on its trustworthiness. Episode 3 (19/12/2008) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7790396.stm Episode 4 (26/12/2008) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7789699.stm Episode 5 (02/01/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7798152.stm *Average wages: How to calculate the average wage when the distribution of wages is skewed. The mean is not appropriate but the median is better. Which is used in the media is often not made clear. *Lake Wobegon effect: The Lake Wobegon effect occurs where the majority of people rate themselves as above/below average at something, like driving ability or politeness. This story investigates this effect and how it makes it difficult to get sensible data. Episode 6 (09/01/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7819674.stm Episode 7 (16/01/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7833271.stm Episode 8 (23/01/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/7845787.stm *Gossett, Fisher and significance: What is meant by statistical significance is discussed, referring back to the work by WS Gossett (alias Student) and Ronald Fisher. An example is given which appears to be wrong. An average of 20 and variance of plus or minus 10 is mentioned for a fictitious diet pill which is said to lead to a likely range of 10 to 30 pounds weight loss. A competing pill has an average weight loss of 5 but will vary by only 0.5 pounds on either side leading to a likely rage of 4.5 to 5.5. It is then claimed that doctors/dieticians/etc. would prefer the second pill because it is more precise and therefore significant. I suspect that the variance is really the standard error of the mean and that the intervals should thus be 0 to 40 for the first pill and 4 to 6 for the second pill. The second pill would then definitely be preferable. Series 16 Episode 1 (17/04/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8003979.stm Episode 2 (24/04/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8016366.stm Episode 3 (01/05/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8028742.stm *Modelling the Swine Flu epidemic: In the early days of the Swine Flu epidemic, the programme talks to some people trying to model the spread of the virus. They talk abut the sort of information that they need, the fact that they need to know the distribution of things like incubation times, etc. They also discuss the reporting of the story in the media and what sort of information journalists use. *Over-simplicity of finance equations: The use of formulae by financial institutions in making business decisions is discussed. Particular focus is put upon a formula which, in order to be simple enough to be applied quickly, ignores the fact that investment/lending opportunities are not independent of each other and their expected returns may be correlated. Episode 4 (08/05/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8040011.stm *Alcohol consumption and risk of cancer: A study reporting an increased risk of breast cancer in women that drank alcohol is examined. It is criticised for excluding from reports women who did not drink at all and got cancer. It is also pointed out that other studies show moderate alcohol consumption can be protective in the case of some cancers. The level of increased supposed risk is discussed. It is suggested that if a study with a million women is required to detect an effect then that effect is so small as to be of questionable relevance. *Understanding questions: Being familiar with the context of a question can hinder a correct response because the respondent may read too deeply into the question or have enough information to doubt their initial reaction. Also different cultures will understand questions in different ways. Episode 5 (15/05/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8051629.stm *Deal Or No Deal: The television programme Deal Or No Deal is discussed along with perceptions of luck and regret. *Digits of pi and normal numbers: A claim that as the expansion of pi cannot be written exactly in decimal form, any combination of digits must occur somewhere in the expansion is explained to be wrong. The idea of normal numbers is introduced (those where every two-digit number occurs on average one in every one hundred times in an expansion and every three-digit number occurs on average one in every one thousand times in an expansion, etc.). It is pointed out that a truly random number must be a normal number. *Statistics of domestic violence: The story of how a statistic about the levels of domestic violence transformed itself over time in the hands of the media into a completely incorrect and dramatic statement. Also about how statistics on domestic violence are and perhaps should be collected. *Who is hardest hit by the recession: Media reports are discussed which talked about the places/occupations that had the largest percentage increase in benefit claimants. Further investigation shows that some of these places/occupations have in fact had very small increases, but as they are from a small base, the percentage increase is large. It is argued that in this context, the change in percentage claiming benefits would be better than the percentage change in claimants. Episode 6 (22/05/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8061968.stm *MPs' expenses scandal and safe seats: An MP had noticed a relationship where the larger the majority that an MP had at the 2005 general election, the more likely they were to be named by The Daily Telegraph when it was reporting the MPs' expenses scandal. He divided the constituency majorities into quartiles and counted the number of MPs named by the paper in each group, showing a relationship. More detailed statistical analysis was suggested including a t-test. Comments on the MP's blog suggested other tests. See also http://markreckons.blogspot.com/. *Predicting football results: Chance plays a part in football results so it could be said that the team that finishes the season at the top of the table is not always the best team. Using simple modelling, one can say which teams are luckier or less lucky in a season. Also by doing some simple modelling, one can make predictions of football scores. See also 14/08/2009. Series 17 Episode 1 (07/08/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8189480.stm Episode 2 (14/08/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8201615.stm *Predicting football results: A piece following-up from 22/05/2009 reports on the results of the matches predicted. See also 22/05/2009. Episode 3 (21/08/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8207622.stm Episode 4 (28/08/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8213670.stm *Conviction statistics for rape: How conviction statistics for rape are typically reported (convictions per complaint to police) compared with other crimes (typically convictions per court trial). Also how comparisons with other crimes and countries are made difficult by collection and recording methods. Episode 5 (04/09/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8234117.stm Episode 6 (11/09/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8248922.stm *Attractive people have more girl babies: An analysis of data apparently showed that attractive people were more likely to have girl babies than unattractive people. The author of the analysis had also found unlikely sex ratio differences for other categories of people. The analyses were challenged by Andrew Gelman who suggested that they were just statistical anomalies due to random fluctuations in small samples, particularly as the analyses reported appeared to be chosen because of their significance. The excerpt discusses regression, statistical significance, using an ordered category as if it were continuous, combining ordered categories to produce binary variables. It also discusses sample sizes and effect sizes in surveys. Series 18 Episode 1 (11/12/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8404720.stm *Reliability of wine ratings: A discussion of how wine competitions are judged and medals awarded with particular reference to how reliable the ratings are and how reproducible the judgements might be. Episode 2 (18/12/2009) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8418233.stm *Surveys of water voles: A 2009 survey of water vole sightings suggested that there were more around than when a 2008 survey was carried out. However, the methodology of the survey had changed so little could be said to compare 2008 with 2009. Episode 3 (01/01/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8424658.stm Election Watch (08/01/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8575001.stm Series 18 Episode 4 (08/01/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8448326.stm *Exponential growth: The exponential function is discussed with particular reference to exponential growth. Population growth and the idea of Malthus are discussed. A YouTube presentation is referenced. *Passenger profiling to combat the threat of terrorism: Discussion of the use of passenger profiling in order to determine who should be subjected to more thorough security checking. It is suggested that the very fact that passenger profiling is carried out changes the statistical basis for the profiling as terrorists change tactics to try and circumvent the profiling. The need to use random checks is explained and a scoring mechanism for determining who to check is suggested. Episode 5 (15/01/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8461211.stm *First past the post polling and conversion into Parliamentary seats: A discussion of how the overall share of the vote converts into Parliamentary seats in different ways for different political parties. *Using Wales as a unit of measurement: Often news reports in the U.K. use the size of Wales as a means of comparison when trying to explain how big some things are. This phenomenon is discussed. Episode 6 (22/01/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8474881.stm *Statistics and politics - from early days to the UK Statistics Authority: Since its early days, Statistics has had an uneasy relationship with politics and politicians. The story of this relationship is told, up to the introduction of the UK Statistics Authority. Election Watch (10/03/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8575001.stm (30/03/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8575001.stm (07/04/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8575001.stm (08/04/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8575001.stm (10/04/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8575001.stm (12/04/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8575001.stm (13/04/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8575001.stm (14/04/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8575001.stm (22/04/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8575001.stm (23/04/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8575001.stm (26/04/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8575001.stm (27/04/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8575001.stm (29/04/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8575001.stm (30/04/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8575001.stm (03/05/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8575001.stm (04/05/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8575001.stm Series 19 Episode 1 (21/05/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8697176.stm *Voting systems, voting power and the alternative vote system: With the 2010 General Election resulting in a coalition agreement that promised a referendum on changing the first past the post electoral system to the alternative vote system, this extract discusses different voting systems. It explains that no electoral system can be perfect. Also discussed is the idea of voting power that represents how much power a party holds in Parliament. *Why opinion polls failed to correctly predict 2010 General Election result: Opinion polls during the 2010 General Election campaign predicted that the Liberal Democrats would get a much larger share of the vote than they ended up getting in the election itself. The reasons for this are discussed and also why exit polls on election night got it right. Episode 2 (28/05/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8711249.stm *Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) as measures of patient care: SMRs can be useful in detecting when things are going wrong with health care but they are reported in a misleading way by the media. They are not able to predict how many excess deaths occurred as a result of poor treatment. See also 01/10/2010. Episode 3 (04/06/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8720866.stm *Pareto Principle: The Pareto Principle or “80-20 rule” is discussed, giving examples of where it seems to work (e.g. 20% of the population have 80% of the wealth) and its history. *Ugliness and criminality: Research investigating attractiveness and the propensity to commit crime is discussed along with the wider topic of anthropometrics. The work of Quetelet and Galton are discussed. Episode 4 (11/06/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8734972.stm *Laffer curve: The Laffer curve describes a phenomenon where at low rates of taxation, more can be raised by increasing the tax rate but at higher tax rates, increasing the rate yields less money as tax avoidance strategies are used. The concerning raising the rate of capital gains tax is used as an example where the Laffer curve may be appropriate and the issue of where the peak of the curve might lie is discussed. *Scale for reporting earnings: In a similar way to which areas of land are often referred to as fractions of multiples of “the size of Wales”, a listener suggests a scale for reporting earnings relative to the income of a pensioner. *Football statistics: The collection of statistics on many different aspects of games of football and performances of footballers is discussed with particular reference to the then forthcoming 2010 FIFA World Cup. Based on the data collected, it is suggested that a particular goalkeeper (Joe Hart) should be used and that England perform badly when Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard play together. Although England’s performance in the tournament suggest that there might be something in what the statistics suggest, the excerpt provides the opportunity to discuss the dangers of predicting beyond the circumstances of the data collection (Premiership performances predicting performance in World Cup) and of looking at headline statistics while not taking other circumstances into account (have England performed better with Frank Lampard not playing with Steven Gerrard because of the standard of opponents on those occasions?). Episode 5 (18/06/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8748159.stm *Measuring the gender pay gap: How one might go about measuring the gap between pay for men and women is discussed. A study into the reasons for the gap is presented which highlights the issue of career breaks affecting income. *Beautiful information: Listeners are asked to contact the programme to say what they were doing when listening so that David McCandless could create a graphical representation of the information. See also 25/06/2010. *Filling football sticker books: The number of stickers needed to complete football sticker books is discussed. A listener worked out how many one would expect to have to buy to get a complete set and the logic of his calculations are discussed. It is acknowledged that the calculations do not take account of swapping of stickers. What is not mentioned is that they have been assuming that the difference stickers are all produced in the same numbers and evenly distributed. Episode 6 (25/06/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8759208.stm *Beautiful information: Discusses some of the information sent in by listeners and the process undertaken by David McCandless to create the graphical representation (online representation not available on 03/09/2010). There is the opportunity to point out that much of what David McCandless is doing to create the representation is coding of the responses. See also 18/06/2010. *Equality of toilet facilities: Giving men and women equality in terms of toilet facilities is more complex than it might seem. On what basis do you measure equality? The number of facilities, the floor area devoted, the waiting time, etc.? The measurement issues involved in this matter are discussed. *Penalty shoot-out probabilities: Ahead of the England vs Germany game in the FIFA 2010 World Cup, the probability of England defeating Germany in a penalty shoot-out is calculated, based on past data and using the Binomial distribution, to be 1.4%. In the game itself, Germany won 4-1 with a goal by Frank Lampard (with the score at 2-1) being ruled out despite TV pictures showing it had cross the goal line. Series 20 Episode 1 (27/08/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8949827.stm *Income inequality and social/health issues: A book looking at the link between income inequality and social/health issues is discussed. There is a discussion about how outliers can be influential in make it appear that a relationship exists whereas when they are removed, the relationship is much more questionable. Also the importance of carrying out multivariate modelling to investigate social phenomena rather than just bivariate scatterplots is discussed. Episode 2 (03/09/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8966509.stm *Calculating life expectancy: Various ways of calculating and expressing life expectancy are given. Also a discussion about how life expectancy may grow significantly in future years. *Relative safety of cycling, walking and driving: The relative safety of cycling, walking and driving is discussed. Whether it is better to look at it in terms of per billion km travelled or per hour travelled, etc. is discussed. Should we look at deaths or injuries? Episode 3 (10/09/2010) URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/more_or_less/8987489.stm *Definitions of disability: Data from two different studies were put together for a newspaper article about discrimination against people with disabilities. It emerges that the definition of “disabled” was likely to be different in the two studies and serves as a reminder that in surveys one must take care in what one assumes respondents will have been answering. Episode 4 (17/09/2010) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00tq1vk Episode 5 (24/09/2010) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00tt6r6 Episode 6 (01/10/2010) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00tznbk *Needless deaths: David Spiegelhalter comments on the reporting of a study he lead concerning differing mortality rates in hospitals after children's heart surgery. The phrase "excess deaths" is criticised and a discussion of when mortality rates above average may or may not be a cause for concern takes place. See also 28/05/2010. Series 21 Episode 1 (10/12/2010) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00wdkf9 *Modelling time spent at traffic lights: A London bus driver had been keeping records of how long he had to wait at traffic lights on his route and suggested that removing traffic lights might improve journey times. The way in which time spent at traffic lights is modelled is discussed. Episode 2 (17/12/2010) http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00wlh2t *Media misinterpretation of correlation as causality: How a story was invented and distributed to the media to see if they would misinterpret it as a causal link. It concerned genuine data about places with more mobile phone masts having higher birth rates. A discussion about the misinterpretation of correlation as causality is included. ---- Go back to More Or Less Wiki main page